Why Consumers Aren’t Spending Confidence is up sharply, yet retail sales are down

According to Gary Shilling of Bloomberg.com, Consumer confidence and retail sales have not moved in tandem of late. Since the U.S. economic expansion started in mid-2009, a gauge of confidence has risen sharply from a low of 25.3 in December 2008 to 120 in April, and has accelerated recently. After an initial recovery, however, retail sales growth has trended down.

Consumer confidence is ineffective for predicting retail sales. The correlation between the two is weak, and the best fit is between year-over-year retail sales growth in the current month and consumer confidence three months later.

According to the Author of This Blog, “Correlation does NOT IMPLY CAUSATION.”

This album has many soliloquys about the Economy since 2005:

Sponsored by BFruitfulAndMultiply.com

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s