The BIGGER they are, the HARDER THEY FALL

Market Intuition Confirmed, market down as much since 3/21/17.

Reiterate SPECULATIVE SHORT on AAPL, dragging the Dow down, as reported by CNBC.  Eric Schiffer REITERATES AVOID on CNBC.

Also, LOWER DOLLAR COULD HURT AAPL because OVERSEAS PRODUCTION IS IN CHINESE RENMIBI WITH NEXT GENERATION IPHONE RUMORED TO RETAIL AT $1000.

According to Barron’s:  Just a few days after Microsoft’s Surface beat out the iPad in J.D. Power’s tablet customer satisfaction survey, Apple’s MacBook line tied for fifth place in Laptop Mag’s annual rankings of laptop brands.

According to CNBC, turmoil in Apple as they Ditch Chip Suppliers.

Also on 4/17/17, BA recommended Short and down on 4/18/17 $1.51 or 0.84% because of commercial engineer layoffs.

The Largest Investment Bank was down the most, today, among its retail bank peers: SPECULATIVE SHORT, GS.  The heyday of the full commission broker is fading because of extreme competition from discount brokerages.  Also, in face of increasing interest rates (60% estimate that the Fed will raise interest rates in June and Janet Yellen publicly said that equities are overvalued), cheap bonds will sap money from the IPO (Initial Public Offering) market as companies hungry for capital take advantage of the relatively inexpensive bond market and rushing towards the bond doors to beat the Fed to the punch and need for QE3 to fund the national debt and defense, in particular, because of a possible restoration of the Cold War between Russia and North Korea (Hedge funds snapping up insurance of a South Korean default of bonds).

Richard Bove of Rafferty Capital interviewed on CNBC raised a caution flag in investing in the banking sector, including GS, because of the lack of monetization of debt.  His leading pick is J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM), led by Jamie Dimon.

President Trump to meet with Stoltenberg today to discuss counterterrorism, Syria and offsetting Russia in Ukraine, according to Kurt Volcker, former Ambassador of NATO,  on CNBC.  The Baltic states, Latvia and Estonia, have increased arms purchases from the greatest USA export, armaments.

Record number of Americans positive on Economy, according to CNBC, since 2007.  Poll taken before the Syrian missile strike although this author believes the aggressive military stance will boost his ratings even higher.  The biggest beneficiaries are the military stocks: LMT, NOC, BA, UTX, GD and RTN.  BA is the largest contractor of Drones with the biggest subcontractor, Israel, the Navy’s F-18BCDEF and the Blade Runner, inspired by the movie starring Harrison Ford and directed by Ridley Scott (who also directed The Man in the High Castle), the Osprey V-22.  

With the commercial explosion of Drones, led by Amazon’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) Popcorn, WRN is a SPECULATIVE PLAY on Gold and Copper used in motherboards, Copper up 1.11% on 4/17/17.  UGLD (NYSE) 3X Speculative Long on Gold.  Silver, used in solder, can be approached with USLV, a SPECULATIVE 3X leveraged play on the precious metal.  The biggest consumer of Brent is the DOD which may spike because of Geopolitics.  BP plc(NYSE: BP) being hurt by surging Pound, up 0.38%.  May hurt LMTs bottom line for Wales Jet Depot.

In her latest note, Jodie Gunzberg writes that energy and industrial metals returned 41.9% and 17.6%, respectively, in 2016, their best years since 2007 and 2009. That’s important because they are the two most economically sensitive commodities, and the last time both were up they led commodities to an eight-year run with 360% gains, from 1999 to 2007.

Moreover, she writes that good years from commodities usually aren’t singular events, and if that’s not enough to get you excited, consider that three powerful price drivers—OPEC, inflation, and a potentially weakening dollar, could also align in 2017.

On 4/17/17: 10 and 30 yr T-Bonds Yield Up, Dollar down according to the Commander-in-Chief’s orders, a curious dichotomy.

LMT is the largest USA purveyor.  29 members of NATO, although most except 3 are in arrears of Accounts Receivables from USA defense companies.  Israel has an open order of 50 LMTs F-35, the largest next to USA armed forces, and is taking the lead in testing its unrivaled avionics.  Turkey is looking to expedite an order in 2017-2018.  Wales will be the mechanic’s depot for NATO.  This may alleviate BREXIT.  Mario Draghi, the President of the EU Central Bank, may need to increase interest rates to increase the Euro and decrease the Pound.  LMT is also in the lead to satisfy India’s need to upgrade its Air Force with F-16s.

James Rickards, guest commentator on CNBC and author of The New York Times bestseller:

The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System

says we have been in a Depression since 2007 and low GDP and jobs numbers (a paltry growth of 98,000) indicates we are sinking lower.  Also, attributing to the downward spiral is the UK withdrawing from the European Union, as reported by The New York Times, leaving contention between France and Germany and historical grudges.

In a recent video published by Hedgeye, Neil Howe said that we’re currently in the fourth turning, which began in 2008. He expects this period to last until around 2030.

By Gary Kasparov, Winter is Coming

Also by Gary, Deep Thinking

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