Plays on Weak Jobs Report

Speculative Short:  CRM intrinsically connected to sales volume of the economy.  Down today on 1/2 of 3m Avg Volume.   Look at YTD chart.

Speculative Short: GOOG on limitation for Adwords to sites that meet the minimum of 10,000 hits.

Retail lost 30,000 jobs and an estimated 8640 stores will close in 2017 vs. 2600 in 2016, courtesy of CNBC.

According to Bloomberg, America’s Retailers Are Closing Stores Faster Than Ever.

Retail stores are closing faster than ever. The rapid descent of so many retailers has left shopping malls with hundreds of slots to fill, and the pain could be just beginning. More than 10 percent of U.S. retail space, or nearly 1 billion square feet, may need to be closed, converted to other uses or renegotiated for lower rent in coming years, according to data provided to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, mall CEOs say the whole “malls are dying” thing is getting old.


But even brands moving aggressively online have struggled to match the growth of market leader Inc.

The Seattle-based company accounted for 53 percent of e-commerce sales growth last year, with the rest of the industry sharing the remaining 47 percent, according to EMarketer Inc.

Initiate Speculative Short, BRX, a national REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) that will directly suffer from the above estimated numbers.  Also, Simon Property Group or SPG.

Initiate Speculative Short on IBM as Armonk is a ghost town and IBM’s flagship product, Watson, is aggressively being promoted despite high $80/month/seat price tag losing to Microsoft’s freemium product, PowerBI.  Also, IBM competes with NCR for cash register business for bricks and mortars.  On 4/18/17, IBM Reported after hours and Confirmed 20th Straight Decline in Quarter performance Y Over Y.  Decline in Software and Legacy Mainframe business.  Warren Buffett invested 6% of outstanding shares with an average price of $170.43.

Lost Jobs will negatively be reflected in NFLX, as discretionary income will deflate because of unemployment or underemployment, and entertainment expenditures will wilt.

Also, reiterate Speculative Short on AAPL as American’s gadget hungriness will balk at rumored $1000 price tag for the next generation of iPhones, as credit card squeeze from AXP, MA and V may loom as high as federal student loans and 0% offers dissipate and usury is implemented after honeymoon period.

Reiterate Speculative Short on NVDA as specialization in gaming chips will wilt along with EA and ATVI.  GME is down today because of a hack attack on its website.  GME already announced closure of storefronts and these closures could intensify.  GME may implode similarly to Radio Shack.  See Due Diligence.

Reiterate Speculative BUY on SQQQ, read below:

The minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, according to Business Insider, released Wednesday showed that many Fed leaders believed the stock market was too expensive.

From the minutes:

“Broad US equity price indexes increased over the intermeeting period, and some measures of valuations, such as price-to-earnings ratios, rose further above historical norms. A standard measure of the equity risk premium edged lower, declining into the lower quartile of its historical distribution of the previous three decades. Stock prices rose across most industries, and equity prices for financial firms outperformed broader indexes.

Meanwhile, spreads of yields on bonds issued by nonfinancial corporations over those on comparable-maturity Treasury securities were little changed.”

This isn’t the first time the Fed has expressed concerns about the high price tag of US equity markets. In June, during her testimony before the Senate, Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen said she was worried about the upward trend in stock prices.

Forward price-to-earnings ratios for equities have increased to a level well above their median of the past three decades,” Yellen said. “Although equity valuations do not appear to be rich relative to Treasury yields, equity prices are vulnerable to rises in term premiums to more normal levels, especially if a reversion was not motivated by positive news about economic growth.”

Initiate Speculative Short on ROST, look at 1 Year Chart.

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