Alan Greenspan, on CNBC, Confirms TheShort.Top Stagflation Hypothesis: TSLA and EA Hubris and UNH leading DOWN, PYPL Bucking the Downward Trend

Former Governor of New Mexico (D), former USA Ambassador to UN and former Energy Secretary, Bill Richardson, thinks Wall untenable and Government cannot prevent shutdown of Federal Government on April 29th.  We have nearly 50K troops in Asia and need to strong-arm China to defuse situation, interviewed on CNN.

STAGFLATION: Combination of Inflation and Stagnation commensurate to the 1970s.

Apple Likely to Miss Next 2 Quarters, according to SeekingAlpha.com

Greenspan compares current Dow, worst performance since 2006, to October 1987 where the market fell 23%.

Euro will fragment into North and South Euro: Germany (EXPANDING DEFENSE SPENDING BY 1.2% ACCORDING TO GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER, WOLFGANG SCHAUBLE, WILL CONTINUE TO DISCUSS POLICIES WITH MNUCHIN), Austria and Finland constitutes the North, South composed of Spain and Greece.

INFLATION:

Purchase Oils – XOM, DVN, CVX, APA, MRO, COP and CHK, also PEIX.  More speculatively on LNG, UGAZ.  SHORT AIRLINES: UAL, AAL, DAL, LUV, ALK AND SAVE. Commensurate to the 1970s: 73 Love Affair.

HEALTHCARE: Most of the Healthcare stocks have already tanked.  I found one that hit a new 52-Week High today, 4/21/17, United Health Care or UNH (A Candle to be extinguished), ripe for the shorting because of the confusion around the ACA.  Trump ambivalent about replacing the ACA in the First 100 Days. The Market does NOT LIKE UNCERTAINTY.

COMMODITIES:

  • According to CNBC, Oil underperforming COPPER: SPECULATIVE PLAY – WRN.  3X LEVERAGED Silver play: USLV.  3X LEVERAGED BULL FUND ON GOLD: NUGT (NYSE), also 3X Velocity 3X Long Gold, UGLD (NYSE).
  • Alternative fuels may SPIKE IN SYMPATHY, REITERATE STRONG BUY: BUY ON THE SHARP KNIFE DOWN, ON 4/21/17: PLUG.
  • Also, if a geopolitical event spooks the market in General, take haven in S&P 500 Short Fund: SDS and the NASDAQ: SQQQ.  A record number of money managers think the market is overvalued.

Possibility of FLASH CRASH.  According to the U.S. government, the British day trader had made tens of millions of dollars using an illegal practice called spoofing, including, fatefully, on the morning of May 6, 2010, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 1,000 points in minutes before bouncing back. The extent of Sarao’s culpability for the flash crash is fiercely contested, but the incident exposed the shaky foundations on which the hyper-fast, computer-dominated financial markets now rest.

Median Stock in S&P500 is down 26%, according to CNBC.  The Trend is Your Friend: S&P Ultrashort Purchase SDS and NASDAQ Ultrashort Lagging Down, SQQQ.

STAGNATIONSPECULATIVE SHORTS BECAUSE OF Discretionary Income Drop: 

  • America’s Retailers CLOSING STORES FASTER THAN EVER!!!!!  What will happen to the Retail Sector employees laid off????? – SPECULATIVE SHORT: S&P Retail (NYSE: XRT) Fund, BRX and SPG.  Foot Locker (NYSE: FL) WARNED March Sales Slower because of a Delay in IRS Refunds (a “Likely Excuse”), HOWEVER, RECEIVED A WALL STREET UPGRADE.  Will get creamed by Zappos.com.  The Proof is in the Pudding, Subway closes 359 stores in 2016, an ANCHOR STORE for many STRIP MALLS.  
  • GME, sales down 16.3% Y Over Y; ATVI (Starting to crack, down 0.16% while market down 0.11%: Also 2016 EPS barely above 2015 with nearly 1.5B in greater sales), SNE AND MSFT down (starting to crack in sympathy with IBM, however, MSFT at one point halted XBox Console production lines).  EA (A Candle that will be extinguished), TTWO and Console Producers, SNE and MSFT.  See DUE DILIGENCE.
  • “Fewer jobs in America,” according to Terry Lundgren (Macy’s Executive Chairman), interviewed on CNBC.
  • UK Retail Sales Lowest Since 2010, ACCORDING TO CNBC.
  • Tourist Industry will GET HIT HARD: EXPE, WYNN, NCLH, CUK, CCL, RCL and DIS, CAR, CBRL, BOBE, CAKE and CMG (discretionary incomes will hurt higher end restaurants as consumers strapped for cash downsize to MCD’s Dollar Menu).
  • Rotating Credit Facilities will have to write off AAPL RETINA liabilities as average cost of a RETINA is insurmountably greater than competition: AXP, MA(Showing Weakness: The Trend is Your Friend) and V (V hits new high: RIPE FOR A SHORT POSITION)
  • Big Blue IBM AND MSTR (Watson, a B-to-B: Business to Business product is being heavily promoted with commercials on TV and the Web: High $80/seat/month price cannot compete with Microsoft Power BI: freemium pricing model)IBM_Watson_Splash_Ad
  • Console Gaming Business Implosion – GME reported comps Y over Y down 16.3% (Down $0.18 or 0.78%), EA (A Candle that will be extinguished), ATVI, TTWO and Console Producers, SNE and MSFT.  See Due Diligence.
  • Also SPECULATIVE SHORTs: NFLX, NVDA, AAPL, GOOG and FB (Oculus is unaffordable for the average consumer commensurate to Console Gaming Business, foreboding THX-1138 (1971) starring Robert Duvall and Donald Pleasence).
  • TSLA recalling 53,000 Models, X and S, because of Brake Problem (63% of Cars Manufactured Last Year).  Also, PRE-ORDERS from the 180K may be rescinded. Down $2.71 or 0.89%.  The TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.
  • REPLACEMENT OF SSDs (Solid State Drives) vs. RAID5SPECULATIVE SHORT OF STX AND WDC.
  • USA MARKET TRADING AT AVERAGE 18 P/E while OVERSEAS MARKET TRADES BETWEEN 13-15 P/E (NYSE: EEM)

ALTERNATIVES TO THE TRADITIONAL BANKING SECTOR: As unemployment and underemployment skyrockets, consumers will flock to ETSY, EBAY(earn $4K) and PYPL(bucking the downward trend today, 4/21/17, up 0.27% or $0.12).  

After the close on 4/26/17, PYPL Reported EPS of $0.44 vs. $0.41 with revenues of $2.98B and announced a share buyback of $5B.  After Hours, shares up $3.00 or 6.76%.

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Tesla is making a risky bet with the Model 3 that could push the company over the edge

According to SeekingAlpha.com, Elon Musk making dubious claims for Model 3 ramp up.

According to BusinessInsider.com and TheShort.Top:

So far this year, Tesla has revealed two big surprises for its forthcoming Model 3, a $35,000 mass-market electric vehicle that will serve up 200 miles of range on a single charge.

The Tesla-for-the-rest-of-us will likely be launched in July, ahead of schedule. That’s surprise number one.

Surprise number two is that Tesla intends to bypass the manufacturing prototype stage and go straight to full production, rolling cars off the assembly line and into customers’ driveways.

“Most automakers test a new model’s production line by building vehicles with relatively cheap, prototype tools designed to be scrapped once they deliver doors that fit, body panels with the right shape and dashboards that don’t have gaps or seams,” Reuters reported.

“Tesla, however, is skipping that preliminary step and ordering permanent, more expensive equipment as it races to launch its Model 3 sedan by a self-imposed volume production deadline of September.”

CEO Elon Musk’s goal is to ramp Model 3 production to 5,000 vehicles per week later in 2017 and then to 10,000 per week sometime in 2018. The run-rate of 10,000 would give Tesla a yearly Model 3 production of 500,000-plus vehicles, when the Model S and Model X are added in.

But even if Tesla doesn’t hit it’s lofty goal of producing 500,000 vehicles in 2018, if nothing goes wrong, it could achieve half a million cars a little later by 2019

For Tesla to achieve this, though, it’s critical that nothing goes wrong.

The big risk

Tesla skipping the manufacturing prototype stage and going straight to full production is risky because something has usually gone wrong with Tesla’s vehicles. There were early production challenges with the Model S when it launched in 2013, and after the overly complicated Model X arrived in 2015, Musk admitted to spending the first half of 2016 in production hell.

The War in Syria: Another Peace Plan; Russia and N. Korea Restless

According to The Economist:

The war in Syria: Another peace plan
Yesterday Russia, Iran and Turkey signed a deal to stop all operations, including Syrian military flights, in four “de-escalation zones” within the country where opposition fighters still hold considerable territory. The plan, reportedly approved by Donald Trump, is the latest attempt to put an end to the six-year war. If the Syrian government honours the deal’s terms, a lasting political solution may edge closer. But the chances are slim.

The Pentagon says the de-escalation zones would not affect its air campaign against ISIS.  What about Yosarian dropping MOAB ($5.0×10^5×800)? A Navy SEAL: Senior Chief Special Warfare Operator Kyle Milliken, 38, of Falmouth, Maine, was killed during a raid in Somalia; He was a 15-year veteran and earned 4 Bronze Stars.
First USA casualty since 1993 in Somalia, 40 miles West of Mogadishu.   Also, 2 other Navy SEALS were injured.

Another front created by The Pentagon and Al-Qaeda branch, Al-Shabaab.

North Korea issues Direct Threat to Ally China.

N. Korea claims USA and S. Korea are behind assassination plot against Kim Jong Un.  A member of the Armed Services Committee denies the plot was ever discussed in the Senate Committee.

Russia sends a 5th sortie TU-95 “Bear” escorted by “unarmed ;-)” Russian Fighters.  Only with USA interception by F-22 “Raptors” were they turned back into International Flight Space.

The Russians arming the Taliban.  Afghanistan the “Graveyard of Empires,” according to CNN.

President Trump, ambivalent to Russia’s warring overtures, makes an appointment to meet with Putin in June in a private meeting around the G-20 meeting.

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BESTEK 150W Power Inverter DC 12V to 110V AC Car Adapter with 3.1A Dual USB Charging Ports

Armour® Barbecue Flavored Vienna Sausage 6-4.6 oz. Cans Fortified with Vitamins A and C

Does Wal-Mart deliver to the ISS (International Space Station) in case of a <a style="color:#ff0000;" href="Wargames: Global Thermonuclear War (Starring Matthew Broderick, Ally Sheedy and Dabney Coleman; Directed by John Badham).

Help Commander Peggy Whitson by going to My New BlogCatch22mx.Space or Listen to H.R. McMaster. or Watch Command and Control on PBS: Now Streaming!!!!!

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Reiterate SPECULATIVE SHORTs

Lack of Economic Growth not shown in the market: POSSIBILITY OF FED JUNE RATE INCREASE:

Consumer Spending unchanged since March; This does not corroborate 98,000 Employment Jobs Report in March and 211,000 jobs created in April.

STAGFLATION

NASDAQ DOWN -0.52% – MORE TO COME

  • GOOG down 0.14% After Hours – Business Expenditures on AdWords will fall.
  • AAPL (Too expensive for the average Indian user): Disappointing Earnings.
  • IBM Due Diligence
  • FB (Oculus too expensive for the average user) EPS $1.03 Down 3.68% AH
  • EA, ATVI, GME, TTWO, SNE, MSFT (Amazon lowering its price on AWS – Amazon Web Services, MSFT will be forced to lower its price on Azure) – Reiterate Downfall of Console Gaming Business
  • TSLA – Problems with Model 3 coming to light. Loss of $1.33 vs $.81 EPS estimate, Revenues of $2.70B vs. $2.62B estimate – Overpriced Stock, according to CNBC:  Due Diligence, published Wednesday, 5/3/17.  On 5/4/17, down $15.15 or 4.87%
  • WYNN and TRVG will Lead EXPE and PCLN DOWN EXPE overspending on TV Commercials: Layoffs in the Retail Sector and lack thereof of Discretionary Income will SEVERELY AFFECT Discretionary Travel Expenditures.    Hit new 52-Week High today, however Trivago (TVAG.SG) down nearly 7%.  CAR down 2.06% during the trading day and After Hours down 6.94% and CAKE down 7.96% After Hours, already mentioned as Shorts fell precipitously today.  WYNN also will get hit (on 5/4/17, down 0.90% or down $1.13).
  • NFLXDown 0.55% and 0.23% After Hours: TV in Dire Shape according to CNBC.  Viacom (VIAB) Down 7.54% ahead of earnings.  Hulu introducing LIVE TV Service which includes the major networks.
  • BABA – Down $0.85 or down 0.73%: The Trend is Your Friend. The EBay of China and manufacturing at 25 year lows.

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